Here’s your rapid fire real estate market update for the Denver metro area!

 

ACTIVE INVENTORY

  • Increased 76% from same period last year!
  • 3,650 active listings on 5/31
  • Home inventory grew 112%; condos grew 12%
  • The historical average is 15,200 listings for May, so we’re at 24% of historical.  Much better than we were last month.
  • The record high inventory in May was 30,500 in 2006.
  • There are potential headwinds limiting further growth in inventory:
    • From 1985-2007, owners tended to stay in their homes for 5-7 years.
    • From 2008-2022, owners are staying in their homes for 11-13 years.
    • The Boomers are not (yet) trading down to smaller home en masse to create inventory as we anticipated.
    • Its possible in the near term (say, 6-12 months) the “shock” of mortgage rate spikes will “lock in” many potential sellers.
    • Thus, inventory growth might be less than otherwise anticipated.
    • How to fix that?  Mortgage rates will likely come down in the next recession (estimated: 15-18 months out, based on historical trends).  That might encourage more listings (and suppress the number of buyers).
    • Inventory will probably grow at a slow rate for the next year or so.

 

CLOSING COUNT

  • Down 4.5% from same period last year
  • That’s an improvement from the last few months, when the volume was down even more than that.
  • YTD volume is down 7% from 2021

 

UNDER CONTRACT

  • Down 3% from same period last year.
  • Overall, this is encouraging.  When you look on a national level at the last several times that mortgage rates suddenly went up 1% or more, on average you see an 11% decline in sales volume over the next year.  It appears that Denver’s current market is more resilient than the historical national average.
  • Nationally, the number homes pending sale is down -9%

PRICE

  • YTD, prices are up 14% from 2021.
  • Comparing just May ’22 to May ’21, prices were up 15%.
  • I do expect this pace of price increase to slow down soon.
  • The consensus of 40+ economists and real estate “experts” is that we’ll have around 8% appreciation for all of 2022 nationwide.  Most of that in the first half of the year.
  • Denver homes were up 15% and condos were up 11% in May.
  • The average home price was $805,000; the average condo was $494,000.

 

MARKETING TIME

  • 9 days for May ’22, down a few days from May ’21.
  • It’s interesting that inventories grew AND DOM fell.  You don’t usually see that.
  • I’d anticipate that inventories will continue to grow, but that we’ll see DOM grow a little too.
  • The growth in DOM will be irrelevant to most deals; if it grows from 9 to 12, sellers won’t really notice on average.
  • Marketing times were identical at 9 days for homes and condos.  

DISCOUNT / PREMIUM

  • The average transaction in May ’22 sold at 5.3% above asking price.
  • In April ’22, it was a 6.9% premium.
  • I’d expect to see this continue to decline.

 

NEW CONSTRUCTION

  • Prices for materials (e.g., lumber, copper, drywall) is up 5% since January.  Future prices for lumber recently started to fall, so perhaps that will moderate in the latter half of the year.
  • Between high construction costs and higher mortgage rates, the demand for new homes has slowed down considerably.
  • Inventory for new homes is building.  Perhaps we’ll see incentives for buyers in the latter half of the year.
  • Net, don’t expect a surge of construction to solve the inventory problem.

 

RENTALS

  • The population is growing, and the construction isn’t keeping up. 
  • Intense demand for rentals has driven rents up 13% year over year.
  • The pace of rental increases will certainly slow down, but don’t expect any declines in rents, even in the upcoming recession.

 

Reach out to us anytime to discuss the real estate market! We’d be happy to help here at ModernWest Home!